WTI crude surged 36% this week — the biggest weekly move since futures started trading in 1983.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February. The Fed is trapped between
oil inflation and labor collapse. Prediction markets price Hormuz closure as near-certain through May.
Oil $100+ by March 31 is at 89.5%. This is not a dip to buy — it is a regime change to position for.
Hormuz closure is priced as a done deal. The question is how long and what escalates next. Iran infrastructure strikes are 23-31% — real tail risk.
| Market | Probability | Read |
|---|
| China tariff 5-15% on March 31 | 42.5% | Moderation from peak tariff scenario |
| China tariff 15-25% on March 31 | 50% | Still most likely band |
| China tariff 10-20% on July 1 | 57% | Settling into structural level |
| Canada tariff 10-20% on July 1 | 71% | High confidence on Canada |
| EU tariff 10-20% on July 1 | 54% | EU exposure growing |
| US tariff revenue above $200B | 57% | New fiscal reality |
March 9 (Sunday)
Futures open
Oil gap direction will set Monday's tone. No Hormuz resolution expected.
March 11 (Tuesday)
CPI Release
February data — oil shock may not show yet, but any hot print adds to stagflation narrative
March 12 (Wednesday)
Weekly Claims
Real-time labor signal. After -92K jobs, claims matter more than usual
March 13 (Thursday)
GDP + JOLTS
Growth confirmation/denial + job openings trend. Double data day
March 17-18
FOMC Meeting
Statement language on oil/inflation tradeoff will define the rate path for months