Brent and WTI, last five days, hourly
Trump paused Project Freedom Tuesday to finalize a ceasefire framework with Iran. Brent broke through $100 for the first time since the war began. AMD reported a record beat-and-raise after the bell and trades 16 percent higher in extended hours.
Trump paused his Project Freedom convoy operation through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday afternoon, with the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remaining in place. The pause is the second wholesale operational pullback this week, after Secretary of State Rubio announced Tuesday that operation Epic Fury, the U.S. combat operation against Iran launched in February, "is over."
The CNBC and Bloomberg wires this morning report the U.S. and Iran are "nearing a deal" to end the conflict. The Iranian proposal, originally rejected by Trump on May 3, would open shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and end the U.S. blockade in exchange for nuclear talks left for later. Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf framed the new arrangement as one being "solidified."
Brent broke through $100 with a fresh session low of $99.84 in the European morning, the first sub-$100 print since the conflict began. WTI broke $92 with a low of $91.59. From the Monday May 4 intraday high of $115.25, Brent has given back $15.41 in 36 hours.
The structural driver underneath the de-escalation is OPEC+. The U.A.E. formally left OPEC on May 1, ending more than fifty years of membership. The first OPEC+ meeting without the U.A.E., on May 3, approved a third consecutive monthly output increase of 188,000 barrels per day for June. Saudi Arabia and Russia each take 62,000 bpd of the increase.
The OPEC+ supply was characterized at the time as "largely symbolic" because Middle East producers cannot physically lift production while Hormuz is blocked. The de-escalation now reads as the unblocking, and the supply increase becomes a real-supply increase.
The Polymarket contract on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June moved from 0.39 yesterday morning to a fresh high of 0.61 this morning. The market is now pricing better-than-coin-flip odds of full strait normalization within seven weeks.
The U.S.-Iran peace deal by May 31 contract repriced from 0.14 to a high of 0.31 over the same window, a doubling. The Iran-airspace-by-Friday contract collapsed to 0.04 odds of closure, fully retraced and overshot the pre-strike level of 0.17.
The U.S.-invade-Iran-before-2027 contract eased to 0.20 from 0.30 a week ago. Across the active conflict-resolution lattice, the prediction tape is converging on a peaceful resolution materializing inside the next eight weeks.
AMD reported Q1 after the Tuesday bell. EPS came in at $1.37 against $1.29 expected, an 8 percent beat. Revenue printed at $10.25 billion against $9.89 expected, a 4 percent beat. Data center revenue printed $5.8 billion, up 57 percent year over year. Q2 guidance was raised to $11.2 billion against the $10.52 billion consensus, a 6 percent guide-up.
The stock ran from a $355.26 cash close to a $414.01 after-hours close, +16.5 percent in extended trading. After-hours range $336.56 to $414.50. The two-session move from Monday's $341.54 close is +21.2 percent, with the stock adding roughly $115 billion of market capitalization since Monday morning's HSBC downgrade.
The Tuesday earnings cohort confirmed the rule that has now run across four consecutive prints. PLTR Monday delivered a record beat without a comparable guide-up and lost 2.7 percent. ANET Tuesday delivered a 21 percent EPS beat without a guide-up and lost 13.4 percent. MSTR Tuesday delivered a worse-than-bearish miss and lost 4.3 percent. Only AMD's beat-and-raise extended.
ARM closed Tuesday cash at $208.84 and traded after-hours to $226.23, up 8.3 percent on AMD sympathy without a print of its own. ARM reports Q1 after the Wednesday bell, at 20:00 UTC. The $17.39 of pre-print cushion is the cohort's bet that ARM also delivers a beat-and-raise.
If ARM only beats clean without a comparable Q2 guide-up, the multiple-compression rule re-engages and the cushion gives back, in line with PLTR Monday and ANET Tuesday.
DIS pre-market with the stock at $100.48, down 2.5 percent on the week into the print. UBER pre-market at $72.95, down 2.9 percent. NVO at $44.87, up 2.3 percent. CVS at $80.69. AppLovin reports Wednesday after the bell at $478.11, up 3.9 percent on the week into the print.
Friday brings non-farm payrolls. The Polymarket Iran-airspace-by-Friday contract resolves Friday at 4 percent. The Trump-Xi summit is confirmed for Beijing, Thursday and Friday May 14-15.