Cleveland Fed daily CPI nowcast — 3 months
Daily real-time CPI estimate. 2.41% February 6 → 5.62% April 24. The model has historically beat consensus surveys.
Brent ran 9.1% in five sessions to $107.36. Cleveland Fed’s daily CPI nowcast hit 5.62% Friday. The 10-year held 4.31%. Eight trading sessions to Powell’s last FOMC.
Daily real-time CPI estimate. 2.41% February 6 → 5.62% April 24. The model has historically beat consensus surveys.
5.62%. The Cleveland Fed’s daily CPI nowcast printed 5.62% on April 24, the highest reading in the three-month series. The same model started February 6 at 2.41%. The 10-year yield is 4.31%, mid-range; TIPS sit at 92.5% of their three-month range; the 30-year is 4.65%. The rates desk has not moved with the model.
$107.36. Brent printed $107.36 intraday on April 23, then closed Friday at $100.90. The April 22 low was $92.29 — a $15 range across two sessions. The forward curve sits in -26.1% backwardation through April 2027, steeper than -21.8% on April 21. Iran’s IRGC boarded two container ships near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend; WTI jumped to $96, Brent topped $107.
3.50–3.75%. Powell holds his final FOMC press conference Wednesday at 2:30 PM ET. Headline CPI printed 3.3% in March; energy was up 12.5% year-over-year. Markets price a 100% probability of a hold. April is not a projections meeting, so no dot plot — every word in the statement carries more interpretive weight than usual.
31% to 97%. The prediction-market contract on Warsh confirmed-by-May-15 was 31% on April 21 and 97% Sunday. Tillis dropped his blockade Sunday after the DOJ ended its Powell renovation probe Friday. Banking Committee vote Wednesday, full Senate after. Powell’s term expires mid-May; Warsh inherits the cycle.
SMH 470.95 → 506.48 (+7.5%, ~3σ). KRE 69.74 → 68.89 (−1.2%, at floor). 8.7pp gap inside the same five-day tape.
+7.5% vs −1.2%. The semiconductor ETF SMH ran +7.5% over five sessions through Friday — a three-sigma move. Regional banks (KRE) printed −1.2%, at 9.6% of their five-day range. Utilities rallied +2.2%, biotech fell −3.2%, regional banks at the floor. Inside the same tape, the AI-capex narrative paid SMH while front-end rate persistence pinned KRE.
93–96%. Five mega-caps report between Wednesday and Thursday. Prediction markets price each at 93–96% probability of beating earnings. Microsoft consensus expects $4.04 EPS / $81.4B revenue / Azure +28% YoY. Alphabet $2.83 / $107B / cloud growth. Meta $7.51 / $55.5B / +31% YoY top-line. The market does not differentiate by setup; the contracts are uniform.
September 1. Tim Cook becomes Executive Chairman; John Ternus becomes Apple CEO effective September 1, 2026. The succession was announced last week. AAPL traded at 72% of its three-month range over that window — the announcement landed in a recovery, not a crash. The deepest Apple-specific prediction market (“Cook leaves before July”) held at 4% throughout, correctly pricing the September date.
110.39 → 111.80 over 3 months. 92.5% of range. Nominal 10-year held flat — the bid is in real yields.
Eight trading sessions. FOMC Wednesday. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon Wednesday. Apple Thursday. Q1 GDP Thursday. March PCE Thursday. April NFP Friday. May 13 brings the official April CPI release. Six sequential data events across nine trading days, with the Cleveland nowcast running daily underneath.
40% / $776K. The deepest macro contract on the prediction-market page is “Fed cuts zero times in 2026,” sitting at 40% on $776K of volume. The companion contract priced 0% probability of a cut at this Wednesday’s meeting. “Unemployment reaches 5.5% in 2026” trades $184K at 22%. Mag7 earnings beat probabilities cluster at 93–96%. The deepest prediction surface this morning is identity questions — who, whether — not how-much.