Macro Research Report

Global Macro Outlook
March 3, 2026

▲ Iran Conflict Active ↓ USD -6.7% YoY ↑ Gold +74% YoY Fed Funds: 3.64% 2s10s: +59bps

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GEOPOLITICAL ALERT — Iran Conflict

Prediction markets price 78% probability Iran closes Strait of Hormuz by March 31. 41% chance of Iranian regime collapse by June 30. Reza Pahlavi 20% to enter Iran by June 30. Ceasefire by March 31 at 44%. Markets in broad risk-off mode today — SPY open -2%, QQQ -2.5%, GLD -4.7% intraday from prev close. USD weakening across nearly all pairs with European currencies surging.

Executive Summary

Capital allocation thesis — March 3, 2026 · Generated from live eli tool data

1

▲ OVERWEIGHT

Gold & Precious Metals — The Macro Hedge of Last Resort

Gold is up +74.1% YoY (GLD ETF) with Pyth spot at $5,095/oz. The USD index is down 6.7% trade-weighted over the same period. Three reinforcing drivers: (1) Iran conflict with 78% Strait of Hormuz closure probability creates real energy supply shock premium; (2) Fed aggressive cut path deteriorates real yield advantage, with TIPS 10Y already down from ~1.92% to 1.72%; (3) Fiscal dominance — debt/GDP at 121% with $37.6T total debt and rising, making inflation tolerance politically necessary. Silver at $82.45/oz. This is not crowded positioning — hold and add on dips.
2

▲ OVERWEIGHT

Short Duration / Cash — 3.64% Risk-Free Carry

With Fed funds at 3.64% and the 2Y at 3.38%, short-duration Treasuries (SHY) offer attractive real carry vs inflation at 2.95% Core CPI. Consumer sentiment has crashed -21.3% YoY to 56.4 — a level historically associated with recessions. JOLTS job openings fell -12.9% YoY. Savings rate at 3.6% (-16.3% YoY) signals consumer balance sheet stress. Markets price 22-24% recession probability in 2026 — cash is not trash here. Hold SHY / T-Bills until growth picture clarifies.
3

↔ NEUTRAL

International Developed Markets (EFA) — USD Tailwind

USD down -10.4% vs EUR, -12.5% vs CHF, -13.2% vs NOK over 12 months benefits unhedged USD-based investors in European equities. EFA at $103.30 (prev close). European defense rearmament and fiscal stimulus post-Ukraine/Iran context may add relative outperformance. Core inflation less problematic in EU. Conviction is moderate — geopolitical contagion risk remains.
4

▼ UNDERWEIGHT

US Equities (SPY/QQQ) — Thin Risk Premium at Peak Uncertainty

SPY at $686 previous close trades near 1Y highs despite megacap tech rolling over hard (MSFT -17.5%, AMZN -11.0%, AAPL -6.5% over 3 months). QQQ ATM put IV 22.1% vs call IV 18.3% shows options market pricing downside premium. HY credit spread still tight at 303bps but UMich sentiment collapse and JOLTS deterioration are leading indicators. With 10Y at 3.97%, equity risk premium is compressed. The Iran shock adds supply-chain tail risk. Trim equities to underweight, hold in defensive (utilities, staples) rather than tech.
5

▼ AVOID

Long Duration Bonds (TLT) — Fiscal Dominance Caps Rally

TLT is down -2.4% YoY with high volatility (max drawdown -9.6%). The 30Y yield at 4.64% is up +8bps YoY even as the front end rallied aggressively (-65bps). This bear steepening dynamic — where cuts get priced at the front but the long end sells off — is the fiscal dominance signal. With $37.6T in debt and monthly deficit spending continuing, the Treasury has to sell enormous volumes of long-dated paper. The 2s30s curve has steepened 73bps in 12 months. Avoid duration >7Y.

Macro Dashboard

32 FRED indicators · as of Feb 2026 (FRED lag) · color = YoY direction

Core PCE (Fed Target)

3.00%

+3.0% YoY · Above 2% target

Unemployment

4.3%

+4.9% YoY · Rising

UMich Sentiment

56.4

-21.3% YoY · Crash level

JOLTS Openings

6,542K

-12.9% YoY · Weakening

US Treasury Yield Curve

As of Feb 27, 2026 · Bull steepening — front end rallying, long end sticky

2s10s Spread

+59bps

Curve normalized · bullish steepening

3mo10y Spread

+30bps

Uninverted · recession signal cleared

2Y Treasury

3.38%

-69bps YoY

10Y Treasury

3.97%

-32bps YoY

30Y Treasury

4.64%

+8bps YoY · sticky

Yield Curve (bar = yield, green = falling YoY)

10Y TIPS Real Yield

1.72%

-10.4% YoY · eroding gold headwind

10Y Breakeven

2.29%

-1.7% YoY · inflation expectations easing

30Y Mortgage

5.98%

-10.3% YoY · housing still stressed

Fed Rate Path

Implied from Kalshi prediction markets · Kevin Warsh 93% next Fed Chair

Current Fed Funds

3.64%

Mar 2026 Hold Prob

95%

No cut this meeting

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair

93%

$37M volume on Kalshi

2026 Year-End Cuts

4-5 expected

Aggressive easing path

Market Performance

1Y returns (ETFs) · 3mo returns (Megacap) · Today all markets in risk-off mode

1-Year Returns — Major ETFs SPY at -2% intraday today · GLD at -4.7% intraday from prev close

3-Month Returns — Megacap Tech All 5 down over 3 months

Options Structure

ATM IV · Put/Call Ratios · Skew · as of March 3, 2026 intraday

SPY — S&P 500

PRICE

$671.89

P/C RATIO

1.059

ATM Call IV	16.4%
ATM Put IV	18.1%
Put IV Premium	+1.7pp skew
Max Pain	—

P/C >1 = bearish lean · put buyers dominating

QQQ — Nasdaq 100

PRICE

$594.27

P/C RATIO

0.991

ATM Call IV	18.3%
ATM Put IV	22.1%
Put IV Premium	+3.8pp skew
Max Pain	—

Elevated skew · downside premium on tech

GLD — Gold ETF

PRICE

$468.54

P/C RATIO

1.001

ATM Call IV	28.4%
ATM Put IV	62.6% ⚠
Put IV Premium	+34.2pp extreme skew
Max Pain	—

Prediction Markets

Kalshi · Live prices as of 16:03 UTC March 3, 2026

US Recession Risk

Market	Yes %	Probability
Recession by end of 2026?	22¢	22%
US recession by end of 2026?	24¢	24%
Recession start Q1 2026?	10¢	10%
Recession start Q2 2026?	6¢	6%

Iran Geopolitical Risk

Market	Yes %	Bar
Strait of Hormuz closed by Mar 31	78¢	78%
Iranian regime falls by Jun 30	41¢	41%
US×Iran ceasefire by Mar 31	44¢	44%
Strait of Hormuz closed by Jun 30	80¢	80%
Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by Jun 30	20¢	20%

Federal Reserve — March 2026 Meeting

Action	Probability	Bar
Hold (0bps)	95%
Cut 25bps	4%
Hike any	1%

Tariff / Trade Policy

Market	Yes %
US effective tariff rate elevated > threshold?	94%
Secondary threshold tariff market	71%

Live Spot Prices

Pyth Hermes oracle network · as of 16:01 UTC March 3, 2026

Gold (XAU/USD)

$5,095

per troy oz · Pyth spot

GLD ETF implies ~$4,650 at current intraday · ~9.5% spread to Pyth

Silver (XAG/USD)

$82.45

per troy oz

Gold/Silver ratio: ~61.8x

Platinum (XPT/USD)

$2,075

per troy oz

Palladium (XPD/USD)

$1,652

per troy oz

WTI Oil (FRED)

$66.36

-3.2% YoY · Iran shock not yet priced in FRED

HY Credit Spread

303bps

-5.6% YoY · Still tight

M2 Money Supply

$22.4T

+4.3% YoY · Re-accelerating

FX & US Dollar

Trade-weighted DXY: 117.82 · -6.7% YoY · USD weakening broadly · Today: major USD selloff

DXY (Trade-Weighted)

117.82

-6.7% YoY · -2.7% 3mo

EUR/USD

1.1577

USD -10.4% YoY vs EUR

USD/JPY

157.87

USD +5.7% YoY vs JPY

USD/CNY

6.899

USD -5.3% YoY vs CNY

Today (March 3): Broad USD weakening — EUR +1.6%, PLN +3.6%, HUF +5.1%, ZAR +3.5%, KRW +3.9%. Largest single-day FX moves in 3 months. Likely driven by Iran conflict + Euro defense spending expectations.

Upcoming Catalysts

March 3–20, 2026 · Earnings + Macro releases

Earnings

Date	Ticker	Company	Time
Mar 3	CRWD	CrowdStrike	After hours
Mar 3	TGT	Target Corp	Pre-market
Mar 3	BBY	Best Buy	Pre-market
Mar 3	GTLB	GitLab	After hours
Mar 3	ROST	Ross Stores	After hours
Mar 16	NVDA	NVIDIA Corp	Upcoming

Macro Releases (Known)

Date	Release	Signal
Mar 5	ISM Services PMI	Sentiment check
Mar 6	ADP Employment	Labor watch
Mar 7	Non-Farm Payrolls	Critical — rising unemployment
Mar 11	CPI Print	Core at 2.95% — above target
Mar 13	PPI + Retail Sales	Demand health
Mar 17	UMich Sentiment (prelim)	Watching for further drop from 56.4
Mar 18	FOMC Meeting Begins	95% hold — no cut expected
Mar 19	FOMC Decision	Hold · Powell press conference

NVDA — Today's Headlines

Source	Headline	Tone
CNBC	We're upgrading our rating on Nvidia shares	Bullish
Morgan Stanley	Nvidia stock is Morgan Stanley's new top chip pick — replacing Micron	Bullish
UBS	NVDA vs MU vs AMD — UBS picks best AI chip stock	Bullish
Barron's	Earnings to include cost of Stock-Based Pay — Bad News for Broadcom, AMD	Bearish
Seeking Alpha	Nvidia Just Exposed How Weak The AI Trade Sentiment Is	Bearish
CNBC	Nvidia to invest $4B in photonics: Coherent and Lumentum	Bullish
JP Morgan	JPMorgan revamps Nvidia stock price target for rest of 2026	Neutral

Fundamentals — Megacap

Trailing twelve months · USD billions

Company	Revenue	Gross Profit	Net Income	EBITDA	FCF	Cash	Total Debt
NVDA	$215.9B	$153.5B	$120.1B	$133.2B	$58.1B	$62.6B	$11.4B
AAPL	$435.6B	$206.2B	$117.8B	$152.9B	$106.3B	$66.9B	$90.5B
MSFT	$305.5B	$209.5B	$119.3B	$175.3B	$53.6B	$89.5B	$123.3B
META	$201.0B	$164.8B	$60.5B	$101.9B	$23.4B	$81.6B	$85.1B

NVDA gross margin: 71% · Net margin: 55.6% — exceptional. MSFT FCF lower than expected due to capex ramp. META FCF thin relative to revenue due to heavy AI infrastructure investment.

Asset Recommendations

Ranked conviction · March 3, 2026

Gold (GLD / physical / Pyth XAU)

+74% YoY · USD structural weakness · Iran Strait of Hormuz 78% closure risk · TIPS real yield falling · Fiscal dominance backdrop. Today's -4.7% pullback is a buying opportunity.

OVERWEIGHT

Short Duration Treasuries (SHY / T-Bills)

3.64% carry · UMich -21% · JOLTS -13% · 22-24% recession probability. Hold cash/short-duration as dry powder and hedge vs equity drawdown.

OVERWEIGHT

International Developed (EFA) — Unhedged

USD -6.7% YoY boosts unhedged EUR returns. Europe defense rearmament. Diverging monetary cycles. Add on USD bounce.

NEUTRAL / ADD

US Equities Large Cap (SPY)

+16.5% YoY but risk-off today. Thin equity risk premium vs 3.97% 10Y. Consumer stress signals. Hold existing positions, do not add.

HOLD

Megacap Tech (MSFT / AMZN / AAPL)

MSFT -17.5%, AMZN -11% over 3 months. Options skew negative. Iran supply chain risk. NVDA earnings March 16 is binary catalyst. Trim exposure.

UNDERWEIGHT

Long Duration Bonds (TLT)

TLT -2.4% YoY. 30Y +8bps YoY while 2Y -69bps = bear steepening. Debt/GDP 121% limits long-end rally. Fiscal supply pressure ongoing. Avoid.

AVOID

eli research · Generated March 3, 2026 · 16:10 UTC

All data from live APIs · Not investment advice
Iran conflict active — data may move rapidly

Global Macro OutlookMarch 3, 2026

Global Macro Outlook
March 3, 2026