v10.1 has -$66 EV vs 100% SGOV over 3 months. SGOV returns $177 risk-free. The research subtracted value vs doing nothing. The portfolio's real value is the dynamic playbook — knowing when to reposition at 7 decision nodes — worth $200-400 in expectation. But DALBAR data says retail investors lag by 848bp under crisis conditions. If you can't execute the playbook perfectly, SGOV is the right answer.
| Ticker | $ | % | Thesis | Stop | Kill Switch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | $4,200 | 21% | 7.3% annualized carry. Zero drawdown. Anchor. | N/A | None. Unconditional. |
| WPM | $2,400 | 12% | Gold royalty. 85.4% margins. Zero energy cost. Antamina stream doubled Apr 1. 22.7x fwd P/E. | $115 | $120 put OI >2,000 → trim to 6%, shift to FNV |
| FNV | $1,200 | 6% | Gold royalty peer. 90.9% margins. Lower vol than WPM. Zero debt. | $220 | Gold below $4,100 sustained |
| GLD | $1,400 | 7% | SWF selling is transient (QIA, KIA raising cash). Snap-back when liquidation clears. Escalation tail insurance. | $395 | DXY >103 AND real rates >2.5% |
| SPY | $2,400 | 12% | Ceasefire upside (45.5% by June 30). Goldman 7,600 target. | $620 | Paired with SH. Net flat beta. |
| SH | $2,400 | 12% | 1x inverse S&P. No theta. No expiry. Hedge for extended war / escalation. | $35.50 | Ceasefire → sell immediately |
| XLE | $1,600 | 8% | War premium. JASSM-ER depletion = prolonged conflict. Bypass capacity only 3.65M bpd (not 8-9M headline). | $53.50 | Oil below $85 for 3 closes |
| CF | $1,600 | 8% | Highest conviction. Fertilizer lock-in this week. Urea +59%. US nat gas feedstock advantage ($2.81 HH). Gulf competition offline. Benefits from war legacy even post-ceasefire. | $115 | Gulf fertilizer exports resume |
| LNG | $1,400 | 7% | Structural energy reshoring. Qatar Ras Laffan 3-5yr repair. TTF-HH spread. +44.6% 3mo (thesis realized, trimmed from 10%). | $255 | Ceasefire = bearish for LNG margins |
| TLT | $1,400 | 7% | Ceasefire = duration rally. Systemic cascade = flight to safety. Loses only on hot CPI + no ceasefire. | $82 | 10Y above 4.65% |
| Scenario | Prob | SPY | Oil | v10.1 Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceasefire by June 30 | 30-35% | 680-700 | $75-85 | -5.6% (-$1,122) |
| Extended war, managed drawdown | 35-40% | 620-650 | $95-110 | +2.4% (+$480) |
| Escalation (Kharg/Bab/nuclear) | 10-15% | 560-600 | $130-160 | +5.3% (+$1,060) |
| Systemic cascade (BOJ+credit) | 5-8% | 520-560 | $80-90 | +3.1% (+$620) |
| Status quo grind | 10-15% | 640-660 | $100-115 | +1.2% (+$240) |
The Fed is fighting chain 1. Chains 2-6 arrive in waves through Q4 2026. Four of six are NOT priced. The compounding makes 4-5% CPI the central path.
Urea $460 → $700/MT (+59%). 30-35% of global nitrogen transited Hormuz. April-May planting = irreversible. Food CPI hits Q4 2026-Q1 2027 — directly in midterm cycle. CF Industries is the trade.
~425 remaining of ~2,300 globally. Pulled from Indo-Pacific prepositioned stocks. Taiwan deterrence consumed. Production: 396/year. 5-year rebuild. This is a China problem, not an Iran problem.
QIA (Qatar GDP -13%), KIA (1991 playbook), ADIA (tactical reallocation). Gold was the most liquid non-dollar asset — it went first. Transient flow. Snap-back when cash need is satisfied.
Iran's missiles are "almost completely North Korean." Kim watching his weapons fight US Patriot/THAAD in real combat. Sohae expansion April 3. ICBM thrust +26%. 35-40% provocation probability in 30 days. Zero market coverage.
Hormuz toll: $600-800M/month in yuan. War near cash-flow neutral. JASSM-ER depletion = America depleting its own deterrent. NATO fractured (France voted no at UN Hormuz). 39% nuclear deal before 2027 is the most probable end state — not regime change. The rial collapsed 2-3x in 5 weeks, but the US political clock (35% approval, 4-5 weeks to GOP 55%) runs out first.
Oil mechanics • Bonds/auctions/CPI kill sequence • Gold/miners/royalties • Shipping/insurance/reinsurance • Currencies/BOJ/EM • Metals/tariffs • Private credit/CLOs • Natural gas/LNG • Nuclear escalation • Fed dynamics • China strategy • India • Consumer cliff • Defense/military sustainability • Ceasefire dynamics (5 contrarians) • Political off-ramp • Crypto • Fertilizer/food/humanitarian • Labor market • VIX/gamma mechanics • Housing/mortgages • Water/desalination • Semiconductors/helium • Fiscal/debt • Energy independence • Russia/NATO • Pharma supply chains • Social sentiment • Dollar dominance • Earnings season • SPR mechanics • European politics/Suez • Iran domestic economy • Gulf sovereign wealth • North Korea • Turkey • Petrochemical chain • Insurance CPI • Retail positioning • Systematic bias correction • Meta-analysis of research limits
85% of this research is obsolete the moment oil opens at 22:00 UTC Sunday. The 15% that survives: fertilizer lock-in (months), JASSM-ER depletion (years), SWF gold selling mechanism (weeks), rial collapse as ceasefire clock (months), and the $656 gamma flip (minutes). The research is a playbook, not a portfolio. Its value scales with execution discipline.