Friday Close: SPY $651. 4th Losing Week. Oil $98. VIX 26.

Friday March 20 · Market Close · Report #6 · Triple Witching Done

The Close

SPY closed $651.38 (-1.28%). 4th consecutive losing week. The 652 pin broke in the gamma unwind — SPY fell through the put wall. VIX closed 26.29 (+9.27%), the highest close since the war began. $5.7T in options expired. 35% of US options exposure gone.

Final Scoreboard

AssetCloseDay
OXY$61.01+2.40%
WTI$98.29+2.24%
LNG$287.98+2.17%
FDX$361.76+1.59%
XLE$59.94+0.97%
SPY$651.38-1.28%
QQQ$584.42-1.45%
GLD$420.10-1.48%
TLT$86.09-1.60%
IWM$243.59-1.63%
JETS$24.23-1.86%
XLU$45.47-2.29%
DAL$63.44-2.42%
VIX26.29+9.27%

Oil Complex at Close

WTI $98.31 (+2.2%) · Brent $105.72 · Spread $7.41
Gas crack: $36.18/bbl · HO crack: $79.66/bbl
Oil $100 March prediction: 74.5%

What the Week Told Us

  1. Energy is the only trade. OXY +2.4%, LNG +2.2%, XLE +1.0% on a day where SPY lost -1.3%. The divergence widened all week.
  2. The 652 pin broke. SPY fell through the 0DTE volume wall in the gamma unwind. Closed at 651.38. The $650 put wall at 297K contracts was the final support — it held, barely.
  3. VIX closed 26.29. Highest close of the war. The market is pricing weekend risk. Iran's "zero restraint" + missile fragment hitting Jerusalem + Marines deploying = elevated fear.
  4. Gold's 7-day crash continues. GLD -1.48% today. From $5,589 to $4,573 (-18.2% peak to trough). Hawkish Fed + dollar strength > war premium for gold.
  5. Credit still holding. HYG -0.65%. Wider than yesterday's -0.45% but still not cracking. The equity selloff hasn't spread to credit. Yet.
  6. Global contagion was worse outside the US. Brazil -3.2%, Europe -2.9%, EM -2.7%. US at -1.3% is the least bad — oil exporter advantage confirmed.

Weekend Risk

VIX 26+ into a weekend with an active war = maximum uncertainty premium. Iran hit Kuwait's refinery today. Israel struck Tehran on Nowruz. Trump called NATO "cowards." Marines deploying. Ceasefire at 5.5% and not budging. Oil $100 March at 74.5%. Any weekend headline moves everything Monday.

The $20K plan thesis holds: energy upstream (OXY, LNG, XLE) is the trade. Everything else is selling. The question is whether to add on Monday's gap or wait for a ceasefire signal that prediction markets say isn't coming until April at the earliest.

eli terminal — March 20, 2026