Friday March 20 · 1:00 PM PT · Report #4 · 90 min to $5.7T expiry
SPY deteriorated from $658 at open to $653. VIX +6.6% to 25.65. QQQ -1.14%. TLT -1.55% — bonds NOT a safe haven. Gold faded from $4,738 high to $4,575. Brent -2.95% on Netanyahu energy pause headline. Everything red except energy E&P.
| Asset | Price | Day |
| OXY | $61.12 | +2.59% |
| LNG | $287.14 | +1.87% |
| WTI | $97.68 | +1.60% |
| XLE | $60.06 | +1.17% |
| SPY | $653.02 | -1.03% |
| QQQ | $586.25 | -1.14% |
| GLD | $423 (GC $4,575) | -0.56% |
| TLT | $86.14 | -1.55% |
| Brent | $105.44 | -2.95% |
| VIX | 25.65 | +6.61% |
| Region | ETF | Day |
| Brazil | EWZ | -3.23% |
| Europe | VGK | -2.93% |
| EU Banks | EUFN | -2.70% |
| EM Broad | EEM | -2.67% |
| Japan | EWJ | -2.43% |
| China | FXI | -2.28% |
| US | SPY | -1.03% |
US is the LEAST bad market. Brazil -3.2%, Europe -2.9%, Japan -2.4%. Global contagion is worse outside the US — the oil exporter advantage is real.
HYG (junk bonds) only -0.45%. When equities drop 1-3% globally and credit barely moves, this is an equity repricing, NOT a credit crisis. If HYG starts catching down to equities, that's the escalation signal. It hasn't. Yet.
WTI $97.68 (+1.6%) · Brent $105.44 (-2.95%) · Spread $7.76
Gas crack: $36.76 · HO crack: $79.02
Gold: $4,575 (intraday: $4,542-$4,738 = $196 swing)
$5.7T in options expire at 4 PM ET. The 3-4 PM window will have 3x normal volume. SPY is $24 below max pain ($677). Historical triple witching: median -0.36%, win rate 25%. Today tracking worse than median at -1.03%.
Weekend risk is real. VIX 25.65 into the close = market expects newsflow. Missile fragment hit Jerusalem's Old City today. 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit accelerating toward Middle East. Iran named this Nowruz the year of "resistance economy." Don't hold unhedged positions over the weekend.
eli terminal — March 20, 2026