SPY Pinned at 652. WTI $98. $5.7T Expiring NOW.

Friday March 20 · 10:45 AM PT / 1:45 PM ET · Report #5 · Gamma unwind imminent

The Pin

SPY $652.33 is sitting exactly on the 0DTE volume wall. Calls at 653 (343K), puts at 652 (344K). Equal pressure. Max pain $675 is irrelevant — SPY blew through it to the downside ($22.67 below). The real pin is 652-653.

Pin zone: 652-653 (massive volume both sides)
Below: 650 put wall (297K) = acceleration if 652 breaks
Above: 655 call wall (323K) = upside cap
VIX: 25.75 (+7%) — approaching 26.60 day high

Scoreboard

AssetPriceDay
WTI$98.02+2.0%
OXY$61.05+2.5%
LNG$286.70+1.7%
XLE$60.01+1.1%
SPY$652.33-1.1%
QQQ$585.30-1.3%
IWM$243.88-1.5%
TLT$86.13-1.6%
JETS$24.25-1.8%
VIX25.75+7.0%

Oil Approaching $100 Again

WTI $98.02 (+2.0%) · Brent $105.75 · Spread $7.73
Gas crack: $36.87/bbl · HO crack: $80.03/bbl
WTI intraday: $92.47 → $98.18 ($5.71 range!)

WTI had a $5.71 intraday range ($92.47 low to $98.18 high). Now sitting near the high. If it closes above $97, the weekend premium is priced in and Monday opens with $100 back in play.

Consumer Damage Report

Airlines: LUV -3.5%, UAL -3.5%, DAL -2.4%. Yahoo: "existential threat" from oil. Homebuilders XHB -2.2%. Only green: Costco +0.4%.

What Happens Next

  1. 12-1 PM PT (3-4 PM ET): $5.7T gamma unwind. Volume 3x. SPY either holds 652 pin or breaks to 650.
  2. After 4 PM ET: 35% of US options exposure gone. Vol should compress next week UNLESS Iran escalates over the weekend.
  3. Weekend risk: Missile hit Jerusalem today. Marines deploying. Iran naming this "the year of resistance economy." Unhedged = unprotected.

eli terminal — March 20, 2026