Friday March 20 · 10:40 AM PT · Report #3 · Day 21
Israel struck Tehran on Nowruz (Persian New Year) — maximally provocative. Iran responded by hitting Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, igniting fires. Israel pauses energy strikes → Iran hits MORE Gulf facilities → Israel strikes Tehran on a holiday → Iran hits Kuwait. Each "de-escalation" is met with escalation.
Trump called NATO allies "cowards" for refusing Hormuz escort. Europe says no way to reopen Hormuz during the war.
| Ticker | Price | Day |
| XLE (energy) | $60.17 | +1.37% |
| STNG (tanker) | $69.15 | flat |
| FRO (tanker) | $32.76 | -0.36% |
| NOC (defense) | $711.55 | -0.36% |
| LMT (defense) | $628.84 | -1.36% |
| PANW (cyber) | $163.54 | -3.65% |
| CRWD (cyber) | $409.62 | -4.33% |
| KTOS (drones) | $87.24 | -5.97% |
After weeks of running, war stocks are giving back. LMT +37% YTD now pulling back. KTOS at 100x+ P/E unwinding. But XLE stays green — the physical oil squeeze is the only thing the market can't sell. VLCC tanker rates at $424,000/day (all-time high).
Oil $100 March: 74.5% (+9pp today)
Kharg Island hit: 20.5% (+6.5pp)
Ceasefire: 5.5% (flat — not budging)
US forces enter Iran: 17.5% (flat)
Commodity bets repricing higher. Diplomacy bets frozen. The market bets on tighter oil, not peace.
Everything is selling EXCEPT physical energy exposure (XLE, OXY, LNG). Defense is giving back gains. Cyber is getting hammered. Tankers are caught between record spot rates and broad tape selling. Gold is on day 6 of a crash. Bonds selling. The only bid is crude oil and the companies that produce it.
For the $20K: The overnight thesis holds — OXY (+2.70%), LNG (+1.98%), CF (+2.64%) are the day's winners. The war is escalating, not de-escalating. Energy upstream is the trade.
eli terminal — March 20, 2026