One-Sided Ceasefire. Oil $97. SPY Bleeds. Prediction Markets Say: Not Over.

Friday March 20 · 10:00 AM PT · Report #2 · Day 21

The De-escalation Is Asymmetric

Israel pledged to stop targeting Iran's energy infrastructure (Netanyahu: "Trump asked us to hold off"). But Iran is NOT reciprocating — still striking Gulf Arab facilities. The ceasefire is one-sided. That's why oil is $97 WTI / $105 Brent, not $85.

Prediction markets confirmed: ceasefire probability unchanged at 5.5%. The Israel energy pause moved ZERO geopolitical odds. But oil $100 by month-end jumped +9pp to 74.5% in 90 minutes. The market is betting on tighter supply, not diplomacy.

Scoreboard (50 min into session)

Asset	Price	Day
OXY	$61.19	+2.70%
CF Industries	$128.87	+2.64%
LNG	$287.46	+1.98%
FDX	$362.73	+1.86%
XLE	$60.26	+1.52%
WTI	$97.06	+0.96%
SPY	$653.71	-0.92%
QQQ	$587.69	-0.90%
GLD	$423.44	-0.70%
TLT	$86.21	-1.46%
JETS	$24.32	-1.50%
VIX	25.22	+4.82%

Oil Complex

WTI $97.06 · Brent $105.31 · Spread $8.23
Gas crack: $36.66/bbl · HO crack: $78.95/bbl

Prediction Markets (LIVE)

Market	Prob	vs 9AM
Oil $100 by end of March	74.5%	+9.0pp
Kharg Island hit by Mar 31	20.5%	+6.5pp
Oil tanker seized by Mar 31	22.5%	+5.0pp
Ceasefire by Mar 31	5.5%	flat
US forces enter Iran	17.5%	flat

The signal: Commodity markets repricing higher (oil $100 at 74.5%, Kharg +6.5pp, tanker +5pp) while diplomacy markets are frozen (ceasefire 5.5%, unchanged). The market doesn't believe the Israel energy ceasefire changes anything for the supply picture.

What to Watch Into Close

3-4 PM gamma unwind — $5.7T expiring. Last hour will be 3x normal volume. SPY $24 below max pain ($677).
Oil close level — above $97 WTI into weekend = sustained pressure. Below $95 = de-escalation taking hold.
Weekend risk pricing — VIX 25+ into close means the market expects newsflow. Iran's "zero restraint" threat is live.

Note to Eli: I got the Fed Chair wrong in overnight reports — Powell is still Chair, Warsh nomination is stalled in Senate (Tillis blocking over DOJ probe). Powell held at 3.50-3.75% on March 18, NOT Warsh. Corrected. Also: gold is on a SIX-day decline, not two-day — crashed from $5,589 to $4,576 (-18%).

eli terminal — March 20, 2026