Triple Witching Bleeds Equities. Energy Rips. Gold Won't Stop Falling.

Friday March 20, 2026 · 9:30 AM PT · Day 21 of Iran War · $5.7T Options Expiring

The Scoreboard

Asset	Price	Day
OXY	$61.12	+2.58%
CF Industries	$128.39	+2.25%
LNG (Cheniere)	$286.55	+1.66%
XLE	$60.16	+1.35%
WTI	$96.44	+0.33%
SPY	$653.00	-1.03%
QQQ	$587.03	-1.01%
GLD	$421.20	-1.22%
TLT	$86.17	-1.51%
JETS	$24.30	-1.58%
XLU	$45.38	-2.48%
Brent	$104.83	-3.52%
VIX	25.31	+5.20%

Oil Complex + Crack Spreads

WTI $96.44 · Brent $104.83 · Spread $8.39
Gasoline crack: $36.49/bbl
Heating oil crack: $78.40/bbl
Brent intraday range: $100.48 - $106.41 ($5.93 swing)

Options: Triple Witching Setup

$5.7 trillion expiring today — largest March expiry since 1996. SPY max pain $677 vs spot $653 — sitting $24 below. Historical win rate: only 25%. The 3-4 PM gamma unwind will be violent.

OXY call flow at P/C vol 0.09 — almost ALL calls. Extremely bullish energy positioning. XLE P/C OI 0.73 (call-dominant). The market is aggressively long energy through options.

Iran War — Day 21

Mojtaba Khamenei is the new Supreme Leader — succession happened after Khamenei was killed in initial strikes
Iran warned "zero restraint" if energy facilities hit again — FM Araghchi said he used only a "fraction" of firepower
US has struck 7,000+ targets across Iran
Saudi Arabia intercepted a missile over Al Jouf — conflict spreading
France's Macron consulting UNSC on Hormuz navigation framework
Death toll: 1,444+ including 204 children

Prediction Markets

Market	Prob
US forces enter Iran by Mar 31	17.5%
Iran ceasefire by Mar 31	5.5%
Iran leadership change Mar 31	15.5%
UAE strikes Iran by Mar 31	13.5%
US invades Iran by Mar 31	12.2%

Ceasefire dropped from 7.5% to 5.5%. The market is getting MORE pessimistic about resolution, not less. Ground entry dropped too (21.5% → 17.5%) — the market thinks this stays an air/naval campaign, not ground invasion, but also doesn't end soon.

What Matters Today

3-4 PM gamma unwind. $5.7T expiring. SPY $24 below max pain. The last hour will be violent. Volume 3x normal.
Oil direction into close. Brent swung $5.93 intraday already. If it closes above $105, the weekend risk premium gets priced in. Below $100 = de-escalation signal.
Weekend risk. Governments drop news Friday evening. Iran's "zero restraint" threat + Isfahan at 58.3% strike probability. Don't be over-leveraged into the close.

eli terminal — March 20, 2026