The July hike contract closed the week at 21%, its first finish above the 20% it carried into the June payrolls release. The Nasdaq 100 ETF gained 1.9% over the same five sessions while the Dow ETF, the payrolls day's big winner, gave back 0.3%.
The largest US listing ever by a foreign company closed 13% above its offer, the July hike bet finished the week at 21%, above where it stood before the June jobs miss, and crude closed lower on the day the ceasefire was declared over.
The July hike contract closed the week at 21%, its first finish above the 20% it carried into the June payrolls release. The Nasdaq 100 ETF gained 1.9% over the same five sessions while the Dow ETF, the payrolls day's big winner, gave back 0.3%.
21% was the July rate-hike bet's Friday close on the deepest July-decision market, its first finish above the 20% it carried into the June payrolls report. The number that ruled the July 2 tape, a 57,000 jobs print that halved the hike bet inside an hour, was fully unlearned in five sessions.
14% was still the price at 16:00 UTC Friday. The last seven points printed between noon and five in New York with no release on the calendar, no Fed speaker on the tape, and no rate story on the wires in the window; a second venue's July no-change contract shed 7 points the same day.
Three prints built the base of the move earlier in the week: Wednesday's June minutes left a committee split enough that the hike-in-2026 bet traded near 50% by Thursday, jobless claims printed 215,000 against 219,000 expected, and the 30-year auction awarded 5.058%, the highest since 2007. Friday's leg, the one that crossed the starting line, printed on none.
4.57% on the 10-year, up 8 basis points since July 2; 5.07% on the 30-year, an eight-week high, a day after an auction that stopped through on strong demand and still could not rally the long end. Gold, which spiked to a two-week high in the payrolls hour, closed the week down 0.5% at 4,114. Layer by layer, the rate complex took back everything the jobs report gave it.
The S&P 500 closed 7,575.39, up 0.42% Friday at its high of the week, 1.2% above the July 2 close. Nine-day implied volatility finished 11.15, down 10.8% on the day. Equities watched the odds of a hike nineteen days out go from 11% to 21% inside a week and cut their near-term insurance by a tenth on the final day anyway.
On July 2 the same variable was the whole tape: an 11-point drop in the hike bet made a 595-point Dow record and a 1.73% Nasdaq-100 decline. This week the variable moved the same distance the other way and equities did not hand the rally back, they inverted it: Meta gained 14.6%, its best week since early 2024, Broadcom 11.2%, SanDisk 10.2% and Nvidia 8.3%, while the Dow, the payrolls day's record-setter, was the week's only red major at −0.5%.
Five sessions inverted the July 2 rotation: every winner of the payrolls day gave it back, every name it sold now leads.
26.5 billion dollars is what SK Hynix raised at 149 a share late Thursday, the largest US listing ever by a foreign company, from a book covered about seven times, roughly 200 billion of orders. The order book, not the debut pop, is the week's cleanest measure of the bid for AI memory at size on a US exchange.
SanDisk marked down 5.8% overnight, Western Digital 4.4%, Micron 4.2%, Applied Materials 3.7% and Seagate 3.4%: the rest of the memory group paid for the allocation between Thursday's late tape and Friday's premarket. The markdown was sector-wide, confined to the exact hours the book settled, and carried no memory headline inside the window.
At the 13:30 UTC bell the money came back. SanDisk printed its low in the opening minutes and was 5% off it within the first hour, on nearly 3 million shares; the ADR's first trade crossed at 170 at 15:30 UTC, touched 177, and the group's highs printed between 15:30 and 17:30 UTC alongside it. SanDisk closed up 4.0%, Seagate 2.5%, and the ADR finished at 168.01, 13% over the offer.
The group marked down 3-6% in the overnight hours where the allocation settled, then recovered from the 13:30 UTC bell as the ADR's first prints landed 14% over the offer.
Micron closed −1.25%, the only major memory name red on a day the sector rallied, fading a Thursday of favorable headlines from its own supply-chain event. Until Friday it was the one liquid US listing for DRAM exposure; by the close, the larger high-bandwidth-memory maker traded on the same exchange.
0.3% lower is where SK Hynix's Seoul shares closed their own Friday session, hours before New York paid 13% over an offer already priced 3.1% above Seoul's Thursday close. The premium exists only on the new exchange.
73.16 was WTI's Friday high, printed in the 14:00 UTC hour as Trump posted that the ceasefire with Iran "is OVER" while agreeing, in the same post, to Iran's request to keep talking. By the next hour crude traded 70.77, and it closed 71.41, down 0.56% on the day the ceasefire was pronounced dead.
The blockade-by-July-31 market closed near 19.5%, five points lower on the day. The escalation premium lives at the weekly scale instead: WTI up 4.3% and Brent 6.2% since July 2, after two straight days of US strikes on Iran and a Russian diesel-export ban that moved benchmark diesel 13% in a week.
The 73.16 high printed in the 14:00 UTC hour around the ceasefire post; the fade to 70.77 followed within the hour, and the blockade market ended the day 5 points lower.
1.56 dollars a share is what Delta earned against a 1.53 consensus at 11:10 UTC, with a full-year guide well above the Street; the stock rose 3% in the premarket hour and closed down 2.3%. It is the second beat this month sold inside its first hour, after Tesla's record delivery quarter on July 2.
Oracle fell 2.65% and closed near its low, a day after S&P Global cut its rating to BBB minus, one notch above junk, on the free-cash-flow deficit its AI buildout is producing; the shares also traded ex-dividend. Friday priced both halves of the same buildout: 13% over the offer for new AI-memory equity, one notch above junk for AI capacity built on debt.
12:30 UTC Tuesday is June CPI, the same morning JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup open earnings season before the bell. A 21% hike bet and a 30-year above 5% meet an inflation print; an equity tape at its weekly high with front vol at 11 meets the first bank guidance of the half. Whichever layer read this week wrong will do its repricing into that morning.