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Monday Edition
Monday July 6, 2026  •  The Chip Bounce Drew a Border

Chips Bounce, Tesla Pops, the Dow Tops 53,000, SanDisk Fades

The Nasdaq rose 1.12% as buyers went back into last week's wreck, the Dow closed above 53,000 for the first time, and SanDisk turned a 4.6% opening gap into a red close.

Monday DOW 53,056 +0.29%  ·  S&P 7,537 +0.72%  ·  NASDAQ 26,121 +1.12%  ·  WDC +7.14%  ·  TSLA +6.69%  ·  AMD +6.61%  ·  AVGO +3.73%  ·  META +2.98%  ·  SNDK −0.03%  ·  LRCX −0.34%  ·  KLAC −0.95%  ·  AMAT −1.70%  ·  VIX 15.57 −3.6%
Since Jun 30 META +6.6%  ·  QQQ −1.8%  ·  NVDA −2.3%  ·  SMH −7.9%  ·  MU −14.7%  ·  AMAT −18.0%  ·  LRCX −19.2%  ·  KLAC −22.7%  ·  SNDK −23.3%
Fifteen-minute lines for five chip stocks on July 6. AMD and Western Digital climb from the open and hold gains of 2 to 7%, while SanDisk, Applied Materials, and Lam Research sell off from the first regular candles and finish 3 to 6% below their pre-market start.

Five stocks opened higher together. AMD and Western Digital kept the bid; SanDisk, Lam, and Applied were sold from the first regular candles to the close.

The bounce sorted the wreck

The Nasdaq rose 1.12% to 26,121.16 as Monday bought back most of what last week's selling broke; the S&P 500 added 0.72% to 7,537.43, and the Dow closed at 53,055.91, up 0.29%, its first finish above 53,000.

Western Digital rose 7.14% and Seagate 5.87%, AMD 6.61%, CoreWeave 5.77%, Taiwan Semiconductor 4.06%, names that had lost 9 to 23% across the two sessions before the holiday. Micron, whose record June quarter could not stop a 15% two-day slide, kept a 0.94% gain.

Four chip names closed red through all of it: SanDisk at 1,744.43, down 0.03%, Lam Research down 0.34%, KLA down 0.95%, Applied Materials down 1.70%. Three of the four are the big US makers of chip-manufacturing equipment. The fourth is the stock at the center of the wreck.

Since Bloomberg reported on July 1, at 12:35 UTC, that Meta plans to sell its spare AI computing power, Meta has gained 6.6% and the three equipment makers have lost 18 to 23%. Meta rose 2.98% Monday to 600.29. The company with the excess is being paid, and the companies that would build more of it are not.

Horizontal bars of Monday's % change against Thursday's close. Green bars from Western Digital up 7.1% down through Nvidia up 0.4%, then four red bars at the bottom: SanDisk, Lam Research, KLA, and Applied Materials.

Everything the wreck touched traded green Monday except SanDisk and the three US equipment makers.

Sold through the Goldman defense

645 was Goldman Sachs' new Applied Materials price target Monday morning, raised from 520, alongside a Lam Research raise from 290 to 380, and both stocks traded up close to 5% in the pre-market on the notes.

Applied Materials never traded higher than 638.00, opened the regular session at 627.76, and bled to a 592.79 close, 8% below the fresh target. Lam printed its 371.90 peak before the bell, managed 366.08 in the first regular hour, and finished at 350.20.

KLA had no note and drew the same path: its 246.32 open was its exact high of the day, and it closed at 233.31, near the 231.16 low. Tokyo Electron had already gapped up and faded to a 1.20% loss in Tokyo hours. ASML, whose lithography machines sell on logic as much as memory, kept 3.15%.

SanDisk opened 4.6% above Thursday, printed 1,837.77 at 14:30 UTC, then gave the whole gap back, touching 1,713.20 by 17:45 UTC and closing 57 cents below Thursday. Its worst hour, 15:30 to 16:30 UTC, cost 3.5% and was also the worst hour for Lam and Applied. No filing, no downgrade, and no memory-pricing datapoint crossed in that window; SanDisk has not filed with the SEC since mid-May.

One month of daily closes indexed to 100. SanDisk, Applied Materials, and Lam Research climb 30 to 45% into late June, collapse across July 1 and 2, and stay flat through July 6. Meta dips through June then ends the month above the Nasdaq 100 line.

SanDisk ran 39% in three weeks and gave it back in two sessions. Meta ended the stretch higher than the index it rattled.

Broadcom got the other verdict

12:00:19 UTC is the acceptance stamp on the filing in which Broadcom said it and Apple have agreed to, in the 8-K's words, "expand their long-standing technology collaboration through 2031" with new multi-year agreements covering "custom ASIC silicon products for use in multiple generations of Apple products." Broadcom rose 2% inside that hour, touched 383.16 just after the open, and closed up 3.73%.

Apple added 1.31% to 312.66, a fourth straight gain. A signed silicon contract was worth 3.7% on Monday's tape; a price-target defense of the equipment names was worth nothing by mid-afternoon.

Monday also took back Thursday's other trade

Health care fell 1.09% and utilities 1.01%, the only red sectors, after the two led Thursday's rate-relief rally, up 2.63% and 2.21%. Microsoft, up 4.68% across the two wreck days as the safety name, slipped 0.96%.

Tesla rose 6.69% to 419.77 and closed 23 cents off its session high, recovering most of Thursday's 7.49% delivery-day drop as its robotaxi service opened in Miami.

The bet on a July rate hike climbed from 11% at Thursday's close to 15% by 17:00 UTC Monday, four of the roughly ten points the payrolls report had removed, with no single hour moving it more than 2. The 10-year yield sat near 4.47% and the long-bond ETF slipped 0.08%, a bond market unmoved in either direction. Christopher Waller told a Bank of Italy conference in Rome that the risk now sits with inflation rather than the labor market, and the odds did not move in his window; the climb began hours later, in the same 14:00 UTC hour a 54.0 June services PMI printed.

Hourly line of the odds of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 meeting, June 22 through July 6. The line holds near 20 to 25% through June, drops from about 20 to 9% around the July 2 payrolls release, sits near 9 to 11% through the holiday weekend, then climbs to 15% late on July 6.

The payrolls report took the July hike bet from about 20% to an 8% weekend low. Monday's session put four points back while the 10-year yield sat still.

The VIX closed at 15.57, its lowest close since June 4, on the day the Dow set its 21st record of 2026 and four chip names could not hold a bid.

The war bid did not survive the morning

23 ballistic missiles, 39 cruise missiles, and 351 drones hit Kyiv overnight in what Ukrainian officials called Russia's largest combined strike of the war, with at least 22 dead by morning counts. Gold futures ran to 4,215.50 by 01:00 UTC and had given nearly all of it back by 14:00 UTC at 4,140.60, settling at 4,155.10, up 1.03% from Thursday.

Brent settled at 71.99, up 0.26%, and its session high of 72.59 printed at 14:00 UTC, hours after the strike headlines rather than during them. Iran's ambassador to China spent the weekend promising "service fees" on Strait of Hormuz transit, and front-month crude did not price it.

Bitcoin ran 4.8% from Thursday to trade above 64,400 late Monday, its high 64,597, with most of the move inside the single hour after 15:00 UTC and no headline attached to it.

Samsung reports overnight

One preliminary print now stands between the memory trade and Tuesday: Samsung's second-quarter flash, due in Seoul hours, the number Bloomberg's weekend coverage framed as the test of the AI-chip trade's nerves.

Seoul had already split before New York opened. SK Hynix gave back 3.38% Monday after rising 10.88% Friday while US markets were closed, Samsung added 2.75% on top of Friday's 8.22%, and the KOSPI eased 0.46%; the relief rally in memory happened offshore on Friday, and Monday's US session decided which parts of it to honor.

Two more catalysts stack behind it, FOMC minutes Wednesday and the NATO summit opening in Ankara Tuesday. The narrower question arrives first: whether a demand number from the biggest memory maker can reopen the capacity trade Monday's buyers refused.

Monday bought the AI trade back and drew a border through it. AMD rose 6.61%, Western Digital 7.14%, and Broadcom 3.73% on a signed Apple contract, while SanDisk round-tripped a 4.6% opening gap to close 57 cents below Thursday and the three big US equipment makers finished red, two of them straight through fresh Goldman target raises. The first Dow close above 53,000 and a 15.57 VIX paid for AI demand; nothing paid for AI capacity.
END
eli terminal  •  Monday July 6, 2026