Every equity line rose through the quarter while long Treasuries traced the zero line. The best three months since 2020 delivered nothing to duration.
The S&P 500 finished its best quarter since 2020 up nearly 15%, while long Treasuries returned nothing and the VIX fell to 16.45.
Every equity line rose through the quarter while long Treasuries traced the zero line. The best three months since 2020 delivered nothing to duration.
The S&P 500 gained 14.9% in the second quarter, its best three months since 2020, and closed the final session up 0.79% at 7,499.36. The index sits up 9.5% for the year.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.52% to 26,213.72 and booked its own best quarter since 2020, carried by a Nasdaq 100 that gained 27.6% over the three months. The tech tape did the heavy lifting all quarter.
The Dow added 0.26% to a record 52,319.20, up 136 points, for a 12.8% quarter and its best first half since 2021. Small caps kept pace, the Russell 2000 up 21% for the quarter on a 0.50% session.
The 20-year Treasury ETF returned minus 0.31% for the quarter, a flat line against a stock market up double digits. Every unit of the best quarter since 2020 was equity, none of it duration.
The 10-year yield ended the quarter at 4.42%, up from 4.31% where it started in April, refusing to fall even as stocks ran. A rally that pushes yields higher is a rally the bond market never endorsed.
Investment-grade credit fell 0.57% on the session, the corporate-bond ETF LQD closing the quarter without a duration tailwind. The fixed-income side spent three months watching equities compound and declining to join.
Memory and semis ran the quarter while long Treasuries, gold, and oil finished lower. The dispersion between the top and bottom of this list is the whole story.
The 10-year yield rose about 4 basis points to 4.42% on June 30 while the long-bond ETF fell 1.18% to 86.42. On the last day of the best quarter since 2020, the bid that never showed up in bonds turned into active selling.
The odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 climbed to about 55% on the odds markets, up roughly 2 points on the day, while the bet on a September hike slipped toward 30%. The market pushed the hike risk out in time but marked it higher, not lower.
The near-term cut bet faded to roughly 23% on the odds markets as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned on June 30 that AI-fueled inflation could force the Fed to raise rates. Duration sold into a hawkish tape rather than a dovish one.
Stocks jumped at the open and held the gain while long Treasuries bled through every hour of the session. The final day of the quarter split equity and duration in real time.
The VIX fell 6.80% to 16.45, down from 25.25 where the quarter began. Volatility buyers stepped away exactly as the calendar turned.
The nine-day VIX dropped 11.5% to 13.73, sinking below the one-month and three-month measures. The steepest complacency sat in the nearest-dated protection, the part of the curve that pays off first if anything breaks.
The VIX drifted down through the quarter into a 16 handle at the close. The market bought stocks and stopped paying for insurance at the same time.
Taiwan Semiconductor jumped 4.94% to 477.57 on fresh price-target hikes from Morgan Stanley and UBS, a 41% quarter and a 57% year. The backdrop was a reported plan to raise 3-nanometer prices as much as 15% in the second half, giving the foundry pricing power the analysts could underwrite.
Nvidia rose 2.63% to 200.09, back above the 200 mark it lost in June, and the tech-sector ETF gained 2.76% for a 43% quarter. The AI hardware complex carried the index into the quarter-end bell.
Micron added 0.79% to 1,154.29 and finished the quarter up more than threefold, a 242% second quarter and a gain of more than 300% on the year. The memory run that defined the first half hit its high on the last day of it.
WTI crude fell 1.77% to 69.50 and lost 31% over the quarter, the geopolitical premium drained after the weekend's US-Iran de-escalation held. Energy was the odd sector out, the energy ETF down 0.88% on the session.
The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by mid-July fell to about 56% on the odds markets, down roughly 9 points on the day. Equities did not react, the risk-on tape untroubled by a fading diplomacy bet.
Gold closed flat near 4,022.90 and gave back 13% for the quarter, while Bitcoin slipped 2.63% to 58,559 and sat out the equity close. The best quarter since 2020 belonged to stocks alone, and the havens spent it going the other way.