A Month of Rotation, Then a 5% Oil Drop
Rebased to 100 at April 27. WTI crude and the semiconductor ETF diverged from the Dow over the final sessions.
WTI fell 5.5% on Iran-talks progress, the Dow closed at a record 50,644, and Marvell rose 5% after the bell.
Rebased to 100 at April 27. WTI crude and the semiconductor ETF diverged from the Dow over the final sessions.
WTI crude settled at 88.68, down 5.5%, and Brent fell 5.3% to 94.29, the largest single-day drop in either contract this month. The slide ran through the US morning as Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a White House Cabinet meeting that the US would give talks with Iran "every chance to succeed" and that the discussions had made progress.
Crude opened near 93 at midnight UTC and had eased to around 90-91 through the London session before a sharp break after 12:15 UTC drove the contract to a session low of 87.77. President Trump said separately he would not allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz as part of any deal, a line that capped the rebound rather than reversing it.
The Polymarket contract on a permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 30 sat at 54.5% on May 27, up from 28.5% on May 20 and a spike to 75.5% on May 24. The companion market on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 reached 48.5%, up from 25.5% a week earlier.
Both markets carry real depth, with the permanent-peace contract showing roughly 465,000 dollars of volume. The repricing toward a deal over the prior week tracks the same diplomatic thread that pulled crude lower on the day Rubio spoke.
Polymarket implied odds. Both contracts roughly doubled over the month into the May 27 oil drop.
The Dow closed at a record 50,644, up 0.36%, while the S&P 500 was flat at 750.46 on the SPY and the Nasdaq 100 ETF eased 0.11%. The split came from semiconductors: the VanEck chip ETF fell 1.1% to 595.50, with Nvidia down 1.1% and AMD off 1.7%.
The chip weakness came intraday. The semiconductor ETF opened at 612 (above the prior close of 602) before selling off to a session low near 585 at 14:15 UTC and recovering to 595.50 by the close.
Hourly. Crude's 5% drop sits apart from the Dow holding flat and chips recovering intraday.
Micron rose 3.6% to 928.41 and TSMC gained 2.5% to 422.73, even as the broad chip group fell. Logic names led the decline, with Marvell off 4.6% into its print and Broadcom flat at 421.86.
The 5-point gap between Micron and Marvell on the same day points to capital flowing toward memory and foundry suppliers rather than the custom-silicon designers, a divide that held through the close.
Marvell reported Q1 fiscal 2027 net revenue of 2.418 billion, a record and up 28% from a year earlier, with data center revenue of 1.833 billion making up 76% of the total. Non-GAAP earnings were 0.80 per share, and the company guided Q2 revenue to 2.7 billion at the midpoint, about 35% growth.
The stock rose 5.1% to 218.81 in extended trading, after closing the regular session down 4.6% at 198.70. Chief Executive Matt Murphy cited "exceptional AI-related bookings" and said the company was "significantly raising" its revenue outlook for fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028.
Salesforce reported adjusted earnings of 3.88 per share against 3.12 expected and revenue of 11.13 billion, up 13% from a year earlier, then guided full-year revenue to a 45.9 to 46.2 billion range that landed slightly below estimates. The stock was little changed after the close.
Agentforce reached 1.2 billion in annualized revenue, up 205% from a year earlier and past 1 billion for the first time. The shares had fallen 0.9% to 177.51 in the regular session, leaving the AI revenue line to compete with a softer top-line outlook.
The VIX fell 4.2% to 16.29, and 10-year Treasury yields held near 4.48% while the 30-year sat at 5.01%. The dollar index was flat at 99.21, leaving the day's energy in commodities and single stocks rather than rates or volatility.
Gold fell 1.2% to 4,447.50 and silver dropped 2.2%, joining crude in a broad commodity step-down. Credit was quiet, with the high-yield ETF off 0.06% and investment-grade up 0.14%.