Walmart Down, Small Caps Up, eli terminal Thursday May 21

Walmart fell 7.3% on a fuel-cost margin hit, while a report of a near US-Iran resolution sent Brent down 2.3% and the Russell 2000 up 0.9%.

WMT 121.34 −7.3% · DE 531.35 −5.2% · TGT 126.15 +3.1% · IWM 282.49 +0.9% · SPY 742.72 +0.2% · BZ=F 102.58 −2.3% · NVDA 219.51 −1.8% · ^VIX 16.76 −3.9% · XLP 84.66 −1.0% · CL=F 96.35 −1.9%

Walmart Broke From The Tape

One-month normalized chart of Walmart, Russell 2000, S&P 500, Brent crude and consumer staples through May 21, showing Walmart dropping sharply on the final day while the Russell 2000 holds up and Brent falls.

Rebased to 100 at April 21. Walmart's last bar separates from staples and the broad market.

Walmart fell 7.3% on a fuel-cost margin hit

Walmart closed at 121.34, down 7.3%, its sharpest one-day drop of the month after first-quarter results landed before the open. Revenue of $177.8 billion grew 7.3%, or 5.9% in constant currency, and global eCommerce rose 26%, both ahead of the $174.8 billion Wall Street had penciled in.

Operating income rose 5.0% but the 8-K stated it was cut by 250 basis points from higher fuel costs in distribution and fulfillment. The release flagged the price of gasoline and diesel fuel among its risk factors, and listed the price of gasoline and diesel as a named pressure on its delivery network.

Adjusted EPS of $0.66 matched the $0.66 forecast, the smallest beat among the day's reporters. The market sold a revenue beat that came with a thinner margin path.

Guidance, not the quarter, set the price

Walmart guided second-quarter adjusted EPS to $0.72 to $0.74 and net sales growth of 4% to 5%, and left its full-year fiscal 2027 outlook unchanged. The guidance explicitly assumed no benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds.

US comparable sales rose 4.1%, down from 4.5% a year earlier, with transactions up 3.0% and average ticket up only 1.1%. Shoppers came more often and spent less per trip.

A report of a near Iran deal ran the opposite trade

At 17:00 UTC, WTI crude printed 96.33, down from 100.01 an hour earlier, after TheStreet reported the Russell 2000 and Dow were rising on a report that a US-Iran draft resolution was "near." Brent settled at 102.58, down 2.3%, and WTI ended near 96.35.

The Russell 2000 rose 0.9% to 282.49 and the Dow added 0.6%, both outpacing the S&P 500 at 0.2% and the Nasdaq, which slipped. Energy was the weakest sector, with XLE off 1.1% as oil fell.

Midday Oil Drop, Small Caps Held

Hourly chart over ten sessions of Walmart, Russell 2000 and WTI crude through May 21, showing WTI dropping midday on the Iran report while the Russell 2000 climbs and Walmart sits well below.

Hourly, rebased to 100. WTI dropped near 17:00 UTC on the Iran report; the Russell 2000 climbed through the session.

The peace-deal market moved 11 points

The market on a permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 30 rose to 39.5% on May 21 from 28.5% the prior day, an 11-point move, on volume above $460,000. The separate US-Iran nuclear-deal market rose to 30.5% from 25.5%.

The near-dated contract on the Iran ceasefire holding through May 24 sat at 99.95% on roughly $1.9 million of volume, pricing no break in the truce over the weekend. The forward markets repriced toward a deal even as the ceasefire itself was treated as settled.

Iran Deal Odds Repriced Higher

Thirty-day daily chart of the implied probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal and a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, both rising into May 21.

Implied probability, daily. Both deal markets jumped on May 21 as the resolution report circulated.

Deere beat but guided ag demand lower

Deere fell 5.2% to 531.35, the day's second-largest drop, after second-quarter EPS of $6.55 beat the $5.70 estimate. A $272 million IEEPA tariff refund lifted equipment margins by about 2.5 points, and management guided US and Canada large-ag industry demand to fall 15% to 20%.

Worldwide net sales rose 5% to $13.37 billion, and full-year net income was guided to $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion. The beat rested partly on a one-time refund, and the forward demand call set the price.

Nvidia drifted after Wednesday's record

Nvidia eased 1.8% to 219.51, the session after it reported record revenue of $81.6 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.87 on May 20, both above estimates. Data-center revenue doubled to $75.2 billion, and the company lifted its dividend to 25 cents and authorized $80 billion in buybacks.

The stock had risen into the print, closing 223.47 on report day before giving back the gain on May 21. The VIX fell 3.9% to 16.76 as the index event passed without a shock.

The largest retailer sold off 7.3% on a fuel-driven margin warning and a thinner guidance path, while the same Iran headline that pressured oil 2.3% lifted small caps 0.9% and pushed the US-Iran peace-deal market up 11 points to 39.5%.