Summit winners and losers, last five days
Trump met Xi in Beijing. Nvidia rallied 4.4% on H200 approval to ten Chinese firms. Boeing dropped 4.7% on a 200-jet order. Macau stayed dumped. Friday is resolution day.
Trump met Xi in Beijing for the first of two scheduled sessions. The delegation includes Bessent, Greer, Rubio, Hegseth and CEOs Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, and Tim Cook. China's side has He Lifeng, Wang Yi, Zheng Shanjie and Li Qiang. The joint Day 1 readout used the phrase "constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability" as the framework for the next three years.
Iran got concrete: China backed opening the Strait of Hormuz and joined the position that Iran should never have nuclear weapons. Taiwan was conspicuously absent from the joint statement. Trade language was status-quo through Day 1.
Reuters scooped Thursday that the US cleared H200 chip sales to ten Chinese firms including Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, JD.com plus distributors Lenovo and Foxconn. Each approved buyer may purchase up to 75,000 H200 chips for a theoretical ceiling near 750,000 units. Blackwell remains restricted.
NVDA closed at $235.74, up 4.4% on the day. The stock had run 8% over the past month and the approval pulled it through prior highs. The friction is that Chinese firms pulled back from large orders after Beijing guidance; approval is not yet shipments.
Trump announced China ordered 200 Boeing jets, "Boeing wanted 150, he got 200." BA closed at $229.21, down 4.7% on the day from $240.60. The 200-jet headline was fully priced. BA had run 7.5% on the month into the summit, in line with SPY. The announcement was the exit.
QCOM closed at $200.08, down 4.0% on the day after running 60.5% over the past month into the summit. The handset-tariff cut that the Board of Trade mechanism would deliver is now priced for landing, and the stock could not extend. Qualcomm's 10-Q has 168 mentions of "license". Its business model is China handset OEM licensing, so the end-market tariff path matters more than direct export controls. The Day 1 status-quo trade language disappointed.
MU closed at $776.01, down 3.4% on the day after the Wednesday post-CPI bounce to $803. SNDK at $1,382.72, down 3.5%. WDC at $489.15, down 2.4%. The memory names have run 53-72% on the month. Today's pullback was less about China and more about the prior week's blowoff giving back.
LVS closed at $50.65, down 2.2%. WYNN at $95.43, down 1.1%. MGM at $36.81, down 2.3%. The casino names are down 7-9% over the past month while broader China-exposed names ran 15-90%. No Macau-friendly language emerged from Day 1. The casinos are the inverse trade.
Polymarket prices a 46% probability Trump announces a China tariff reduction this week, 64% a US-China tariff agreement by May 31, and only 11% that the China import tariff rate falls below 10% by July. The market expects an agreement but not deep cuts. The current 47% rate, lowered from 57% at the October Busan meeting, likely holds.
The names priced for the deal are heaviest at the top. INTC at +88.5% over the month is the most-priced summit trade and the biggest air-pocket risk. QCOM at +60% and MU at +72% are also fully expressed. The Blackwell tail at NVDA is the largest unpriced catalyst; the H200 approval today does not include it. AMAT, KLAC, LRCX have not run, which says the market is pricing the Board of Trade national-security carveout as binding.
SPY closed at $748.17, up 0.79% on the day. QQQ added 0.34%. TLT at $84.92, flat. GLD at $427.21, down 0.5%. USO at $143.00, up 0.9%. WTI closed at $102.02, up 0.99%. Mars Gulf Coast physical sat at $121.23, down 0.76% from yesterday's peak. The natural-gas tape moved with January-2026 contango (UNG up).
Friday is the resolution day. Trump's working lunch with Xi closes the summit before he departs Beijing. Final joint communique expected. The watchlist:
(1) Section 301 List 4 exclusions. Would help AAPL most directly. (2) Any Blackwell language from the US side. Would re-rate NVDA. (3) BIS rule modifications on semicap. Would re-rate AMAT, KLAC, LRCX from baseline-flat. (4) Macau commentary. Anything would help LVS, WYNN, MGM mean-revert. (5) Critical-minerals / rare-earth language. China's asymmetric leverage. AMAT reports after close.