Chips Up, Oil Up, Stocks Flat, eli terminal Monday May 11

Memory extended its run. Energy futures bid. The S&P closed up 0.10% on a day that read like a fresh geopolitical shock and traded like a non-event.

MU 795.33 +6.5% · NVDA 219.44 +2.0% · META 598.86 −1.7% · ORCL 193.84 −1.1% · BZ 104.42 +3.1% · SPY 739.30 +0.1%

The rejection

Trump rejected Iran's counter-proposal over the weekend. He called it "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." Iran's offer demanded sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, sanctions relief, and the release of frozen assets. The White House said the ceasefire is on "massive life support." Day 72 of the conflict closed with no breakthrough.

Polymarket prices a 1% probability that Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Friday. 12% by end of May. 38% by end of June. The supply choke is priced as structural through summer.

The tape

Monday did not behave like a fresh shock. The S&P closed at 739.30, up 0.10%. The Nasdaq added 0.10%. The Russell 2000 was flat. TLT dropped 0.30%, lifting the long end against the classic safe-haven trade. GLD slipped 0.20%. UVXY rose 1.70%. The dollar barely moved.

Energy moved. XLE closed up 1.60%. USO added 1.70%. UNG rose 2.10% on a 5.5% natural gas rally. WTI futures closed at $98.25, Brent at $104.42. The complex priced incremental supply concern without panic.

What the suppliers did

MU closed at $795.33, up 6.5% on the day and 86% over the past month. NVDA closed at $219.44, up 2.0%. AMD at $458.79, up 0.7%. SNDK held at $1,547.56, up 62% on the month. Western Digital at $515.83, up 47% on the month.

The buyer side stalled. META closed at $598.86, down 1.7% on the day. ORCL at $193.84, down 1.1%. MSFT at $407.77, down 1.8%. AVGO at $428.43, down 0.4%. Capital is still flowing from the buyers to the suppliers, and the geopolitical premium did not pull it out of that flow.

The physical grade dispersion

Mars Gulf Coast medium-sour crude, the grade refiners run when Saudi Arab Light and Iranian heavy do not flow, sat at $118.49 on a current tick, up 4.4%. Bonny Light at $110.09. Murban at $103.60. A $20 Mars-WTI premium for the grade the refining base actually needs when the Strait is choked.

Front-month Brent futures rolled lower into the rejection. The 5-day return is −5.0% as the contract month flipped. Today specifically Brent added 3.14%. The futures market read Iran as priced. The physical market read it as ongoing.

The defense puzzle

Defense had a small intraday rebound. LMT closed at $512.25, up 1.1%. RTX at $178.61, up 1.1%. ITA at $225.99, up 1.3%. The 1-month picture remains brutal: LMT down 17%, NOC down 19%, RTX down 11% over the past month of escalating war. Monday's bid was a rebound inside a downtrend, not a reversal.

What's positioned for tomorrow

The bond move suggested positioning for a hot April CPI print arriving Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET. Bloomberg consensus is 0.6% MoM headline and 3.7% YoY. Core consensus 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY. The Cleveland Fed nowcast lands at 3.56% YoY, below consensus. Kalshi prices 37% on 3.7%, 33% on 3.8%, 6% on 3.9%.

Brent peaked at $114 in mid-April. Retailers paid suppliers using FIFO inventory accounting near that level while pumps ran above $4.00 a gallon. That passthrough hits tomorrow's print.

AMAT reports Thursday after close. First equipment-side test for whether the supplier extension has another leg.

Trump said no to Iran. The S&P said nothing. The tape priced the rejection as a non-event because the actual trade is tomorrow's 8:30 print. Hot CPI breaks bonds further, firms the dollar, keeps suppliers bid. Cool CPI drops real yields, finally bids the abandoned names. Iran is the noise. Tomorrow's CPI is the move.